Could Specter switch affect Texas governor's race? To whose benefit?

Today, Pa. Sen. Arlen Specter changed from the Republican to the Democratic Party, in order to avoid a possible loss to Pat Toomey in the Republican primary and improve his chances for retaining his Senate seat by winning as a Dem. in the general.

If Dem. Al Franken is declared the winner in the Minn. senate race, the switch by Specter will give the Democrats the 60 seats for a filibuster-proof majority. Minn. Republican Norm Coleman is appealing his case to the state Supreme Court; arguments may be heard in about a month.

Experts think that Franken will eventually prevail, making it imperative that Kay Bailey Hutchison stay in her seat to prevent the 60 seat majority, in case a Dem. might win in a special election for her Texas senate seat--given the situation before the Specter switch.

Gov. 39% would blame KBH for the 60-seat Dem. advantage in the gubernatorial campaign, if she resigned to concentrate on the governor's race and the Dems took the seat. However, if Franken is declared the winner, and with Specter switching, the Dems will already have their 60, thus placing this beyond the control of KBH. Not her fault!

If the experts are wrong, and Coleman wins the Minn. seat, or if no winner is declared for several months, the pressure stays on KBH to remain and not take the chance of losing that seat. With Perry's recent publicity-hound antics, she may be hoping to get to Texas soon to make more of a presence here herself. On the other hand, she may think that when your opponent is making a fool of himself, the best strategy is to get out of the way and let him do it.

The Dallas Morning News has taken away one of Perry's big issues--that KBH is part of the culture of DC, reporting, "Perry regularly rails against Washington, D.C., but when it comes to campaign cash, he has raised far more than rival Kay Bailey Hutchison from the nation's capital. Perry has collected $2.7 million from Washington since becoming governor — four times more than Hutchison's $670,000 from Washington during the same period, a Morning News analysis found."

Perry wants your ideas--really! And 39% is a great victory!

The Statesman's W. Gardner Selby has reported that Perry wants help from YOU to launch his 2010 gubernatorial campaign.

To see this version of the old gambit to make the hoi polloi think that the governor cares what they think, go to

http://www.rickperry.org/campaign-kickoff

Help Governor Perry Kickoff His Campaign This Summer with Your Ideas

Sure--that's why he's paying gazillions to consultants, so he can use free ideas from you the people.

It's going to be hard to beat the slogan from last time: "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?"

Here's one: "Help Gov. 39% get to 40."

In the Statesman today, Jason Embry has some entertaining excerpts on the legislative blog from depositions in Chris Bell's case against Perry's campaign from 2006. In "Perry tried to prop up Bell,"

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/firstreading/index.html

If you have time, read the whole thing to get some behind-the-scenes goings on. For instance, Perry consultant Dave Carney says,

"So the theory would be that if Kinky collapsed, all that vote would go to Carole, and it’s very difficult to stop an independent candidate, you know, in that her resources to money was pretty significant as being the comptroller and some of her deep-pocket supporters. So we had a strategy to pump up Bell."

As a volunteer who gathered petition signatures to help Strayhorn get on the ballot, I thought at the time that she was the one with the best chance to raise enough money to challenge Perry in advertising and other communication, as opposed to Bell and Kinky. Evidently, Perry's campaign saw this too, and took steps to change the equation, as much as they could.

The Statesman article (for which his blog entry is extra background) is "Governor's race lawsuit back in court,"

http://www.statesman.com/news/content/region/legislature/stories/04/06/0406perryrga.html

I do question one of its statements:

"Rick Perry eventually got $1 million from the governors on his way to a rather easy re-election win. A year later, Bell sued Perry and the association, alleging that the governor kept the public from fully knowing the source of the money."

I guess you could call it a "rather easy re-election win," but you can also call him Gov. 39%.